Nats Off-Season Christmas List, Part 2

Here are NFR's Top 3 items on our Nats' off-season Christmas list!

#3 - Power and/or Defense at 1B

Unlike the 3B situation, where there are some stopgap options, the situation at 1B looks like it needs some immediate resolution.  The Joey Gallo era was… disappointing to put it nicely.  His defense at 1B was an impressive surprise, but nowhere near enough to balance out the ineffective offense.  Chaparro, a converted 3B, and Yepez, both had their moments as mentioned already, but neither seems like a long-term or even medium-term solution to the position - unless you’re ready for the Yohandy Morales-era to begin.

In 75 minor league games, just under ½ season, mostly at AA-Harrisburg, Morales hit .283 with 7 HR, 43 RBI, and an OPS of .784.  Those numbers are encouraging for a guy who just turned 23 and battled some injuries in 2024, but Nats Family Report suspects he starts 2025 at Rochester - or could possibly be trade bait if a 1B target is available in the trade market.  

In the Free Agent market, there are 4 theoretically viable options: Pete Alonso, Christian Walker, Paul Goldschmidt, and old friend Josh Bell.  Pete Alonso?  Mark him down for 30+ HR and 90+ RBI.  Also mark him down as an immobile, below average defender.  His -8 Outs Above Average (OAA) in 2024 was the worst of his career.  He’s 30 and in the middle of his prime, so even with his defensive shortcomings, he’ll command $30+ million/year over a longer-term deal, probably looking for 6+ years.  Likely not the answer for the Nats.

Christian Walker is 34, and is a 2-time Gold Glove winner.  Considering the still-maturing nature of our infield (Abrams, Garcia, House, LIpscomb, Nunez, etc), a strong defensive 1B seems to be a must.  Walker doesn’t have quite the offensive credentials of Alonso, but part of Walker’s value is in his consistency.  He should be the Nats first phone call of free agency, but he will be in demand by many teams this off season, including his current Diamondbacks.  It may be a long shot to actually sign him, but exploring this option is a must. (Stats from Baseball Savant)

Paul Goldschmidt is equally intriguing.  He’s 37, but that would make him a better fit with the type of short-term contract that would appeal to the Nats.  Goldy is a sure-fire Hall of Famer, and signing him would feel similar to signing Pudge Rodriguez for 2010-2011.  You don’t sign a guy like that expecting prime-of-his-career production, but you do hope for stability, leadership, and production. 

His defense may no longer be elite, but he is only 2 years removed from a .317/35 HR season, and his offensive metrics remain elite, particularly Avg Exit Velocity and Hard Hit %.  He’ll still command a pretty penny, but for a 1- or 2- year deal, he is intriguing, and a more viable second option after Walker than is Alonso.  Goldschmidt represents the type of elite, but conservative spending that many fans long for.  (Stats from Baseball Savant)

If Nationals’ ownership wants to make a splash with an offensive signing this winter, 1B is the most likely target.  

#2 - Top 3 starter

One of the best surprises of the 2024 season was the emergence of both DJ Herz and Mitchell Parker, along with the growth and consistency from Jake Irvin.  There is still the looming and long-awaited hope of production from Josiah Gray, Jackson Rutledge and Cade Cavalli.  Brad Lord is an intriguing dark horse candidate for 2025, and don’t forget Alex Clemmey and Travis Sykora are only 2, maybe 3 years away from joining what could be a really intimidating, home-grown starting rotation come 2027 or 2028.  Corbin and his $25 million/year come off the books,  so some resources are being freed up.  

So the question for this off-season is: how many dollars and how many years should be committed to a starter that could fill a spot in the top half of the rotation?  And how are the options?

The answer is: there’s Corbin Burnes and then there’s everyone else.  Burnes is a bona fide ace; he’s 30 years old, and one could reasonably pencil him in as a Cy Young contender for another four, five, six seasons.  Slotting him in at the top of the Nats rotation means everyone else slides down, and a Top 3 of Burnes, Gore, and Irvin feels pretty competitive in the NL East.  This allows the intriguing, but unproven colts in the Nats’ stable to grow with a little less pressure.  Burnes’ services will be in high demand, and any team who signs him will have to shell out a serious,9-figure contract.  Spotrac projects a 7-year, $215 million deal for Burnes.  Hard to see the Nats signing up for that while still feeling the sting of the Strasburg and Corbin contracts - but a phone call to Burnes’ agent should be job #1 for the Nats.  

After Corbin are some options that would certainly carry less financial risk, but you’d have to squint a little to see one of those options growing into an ace or even a Top 3 starter for years to come.  Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, Luis Severino, and Sean Manaea all offer promise without breaking the bank.  NFR’s perspective is that Jack Flaherty and Luis Severino offer the best options after Burnes.  Flaherty is only 29, and his 2024 stats of 13-7, with a 3.17 ERA, and a 1.07 WHIP would make him the de facto ace of the Nats staff heading into 2025.  Spotrac projects a 6-year, $121 million contract, and he’ll be in demand from many teams.  

Luis Severino would be attractive, not just because of his stats and potential, but also because there would be a measure of joy of stealing a starter from a division rival (this makes Manaea and Fried extra interesting as well).  He’s 31, and finished 2024 11-7, with an ERA just under 4.  His Yankees tenure ended with a disastrous 2023, but he proved his value this year with the Mets.  Spotrac’s projection for him is 4 years, $56 million.  Severino probably would slot in behind Gore and Irvin as the Nats #3 starter.   

#1 - Team Leader

This might feel like a cheating answer for the  #1 need, as this team leader would almost certainly also fill one of the other needs reviewed here, but NFR is adamant that a team leader is the biggest void in the Nats’ current roster.  Generally speaking, this leader needs to be a position player (2015 Max Scherzer is not walking through that door; no offense to Corbin Burnes), so for the purposes of this discussion, we won’t consider either pitchers or full-time DHs.  

It’s the hardest role for those of us on the outside looking in to identify.  We can see stats, we can see how a guy seems to interact with his teammates through the tv broadcast, but we don’t see what happens in the clubhouse.  We don’t see how willing a veteran is to mentor, train, encourage, exhort, and admonish younger players.  We don’t see who has the first-in, last-out mentality that sets the example for everyone else.  Jayson Werth joined the Nats in 2011 to fill just such a role.  The Nats, who probably overpaid for Werth’s on-field value, saw the need for a clubhouse leader, and Werth successfully served as the bridge veteran from all of our 100-loss seasons to a World Series Champion team where Ryan Zimmerman had become the unquestioned leader.  The 2025 Nationals are in need of a similar bridge.  The young core of Abrams, Wood, Crews, Garcia et al is exciting, and there is so much reason for optimism.  But the end of Abrams’ 2024 campaign illustrates just the depth of need here.  Was there a clubhouse leader this year to exert influence to keep Abrams on the straight and narrow?  Was Victor Robles’ periodic knuckleheadedness on the field left unchecked by team leaders?  The Nats ability to contend for a World Series or three in the rest of this decade depends on their young core growing and maturing into a dominant group; they need to be guided to that promised land.  Dylan Crews looks like he might have the charisma and gritty effort to eventually be that team leader, but it’s not practical or fair to ask that of him for another year or two.  

Would Paul Goldschmidt embrace the opportunity to play for an up-and-coming team for his final few years of a HOF career?  Do Christian Walker or Alex Bregman want the responsibility of “running” a clubhouse?  The answer is: we don’t know.  But we do trust Mike Rizzo to identify that leadership quality in players; he’s done it before, and there’s reason to believe he can do it again.  Any of the players we’ve mentioned above that would bring that leadership quality would immediately vault to the top of our off-season wish list.